TİME SERİES ANALYSİS OF VARİABLES AFFECTİNG GDP: AN EMPİRİCAL STUDY: GSYIH’YI ETKİLEYEN DEĞİŞKENLERİN ZAMAN SERİLERİ ANALİZİ: AMPİRİK ÇALIŞMA

Furkan TURA

Authors

Furkan TURA Bandırma Onyedi Eylül Üniversity https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6304-6749

Keywords:

GDP, time series, empirical study

Abstract

In this study, the relationships between various macroeconomic indicators that determine the performance of the Turkish economy are analyzed by time series analysis. Using World Bank data for the period 1988-2021, GDP growth and the variables of exports of goods and services, imports of goods and services, gross fixed capital formation (investment), value added in the industrial sector (including construction), value added in the services sector, value added in the agriculture-forestry-fisheries sector, foreign direct investment inflows and defense expenditures are considered. First, the stationarity of the series is tested with Ng-Perron unit root tests. Then, Johansen cointegration test is applied to identify long-term equilibria and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is estimated for cointegrated variable groups. Granger causality tests were conducted to identify short-term causality relationships and impulse-response analysis was applied to analyze the response of variables to shocks. The findings indicate that the main drivers of growth in the Turkish economy are export performance, foreign capital inflows and developments in the industrial and services sectors. In the short run, growth in the services sector has a leading effect on GDP, while export and investment increases have positive effects on growth. In the long run, a statistically significant equilibrium relationship is found between GDP and imports, exports, investment and industrial production. In particular, it is found that the increase in imports makes the strongest contribution to GDP growth in the long run, while the effects of exports and investment weaken over time. Defense expenditures do not have a significant impact on growth. For policymakers, these findings suggest that sustaining export-led growth strategies, encouraging foreign investment and capital inflows, and productivity-oriented reforms in industry and services sectors are critical for long-term sustainable growth.

References

ARSLAN Fırat, & ETİZ Alaattin. (2023). Türkiye’de İhracatın Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: 1960-2020 Yılları Arası İnceleme. Sosyal Bilimler Akademik Gelişim Dergisi (SOBAG), 1(1), 30–42. https://sobag.org/index.php/pub/article/view/5

Baday Yildiz, E., & Berber, M. (2011). İTHALATA DAYALI BÜYÜME: 1989–2007 TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Atatürk Ü. İİBF Dergisi, 10. Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu Özel Sayısı, 165–179.

Barrie, A. S. I., Sillah, A., Bangura, M., Barrie, A. S. I., Sillah, A., & Bangura, M. (2021). An Empirical Investigation of the Export-Led Growth (ELG) and Import-Led Growth (ILG) Hypotheses in Sierra Leone. Modern Economy, 12(11), 1648–1665. https://doi.org/10.4236/ME.2021.1211083

Barro, R. J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995). Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth. https://doi.org/10.3386/W5151

Benoit, E. (1978a). Growth and Defense in Developing Countries. Https://Doi.Org/10.1086/451015, 26(2), 271–280. https://doi.org/10.1086/451015

Benoit, E. (1978b). Growth and Defense in Developing Countries. THE UNIVERSTY OF CHICAGO PRESS JOURNALS, 26(2), 271–280. https://doi.org/10.1086/451015

Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J. W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth? Journal of International Economics, 45(1), 115–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00033-0

Destek Mehmet Akif. (2016). NATO ÜLKELERİNDE ASKERİ HARCAMALAR VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: YATAY KESİT BAĞIMLILIĞI ALTINDA PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 12(28), 209–223. https://doi.org/10.17130/IJMEB.20162819853

Dinç, Ö. G. (2022). TÜRKİYE’DE TARIM, SANAYİ VE HİZMET SEKTÖRLERİ İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: BOOTSTRAP TODA-YAMAMOTO NEDENSELLİK TESTİ. Journal of Business Economics and Management Research, 5(2), 226–233. https://doi.org/10.33416/BAYBEM.1125113

Doğaner, A. (2022). SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİR EKONOMİK KALKINMA İÇİN TÜRKİYE’DE DİRENÇLİ ŞEHİRLER. In Çevre Şehir ve İklim Dergisi (Vol. 1, Issue 2, pp. 59–80). Çevre Şehircilik ve İklim Değişikliği Bakanlığı. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/csid/issue/72150/1120039

Doğaner Ayça. (2022). İMALAT SANAYİ VE HİZMETLER SEKTÖRÜNDE ÜRETİLEN KATMA DEĞERİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİ. Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 22(2), 159–172. https://doi.org/10.30976/SUSEAD.1170323

EKİNCİ Aykut. (211 C.E.). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Ekonomik Büyüme ve İstihdama Etkisi: Türkiye Uygulaması. ESKİŞEHİR OSMANGAZİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ İİBF DERGİSİ, 2011(2), 71–96.

Högskola, S., Demissie, M., & Swain, R. B. (n.d.). FDI, Human Capital and Economic Growth A panel data analysis of developing countries.

Kılıç Tuğba Funda, K. O. (2023). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Yönteminden Ampirik Kanıtlar. Bartın Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(27), 41–61. https://doi.org/10.47129/BARTINIIBF.1292180

Konya, & Laszlo. (2004). Unit-Root, Cointegration and Granger Causality Test Results for Export and Growth in OECD Countries. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 1(2), 67–94. https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/ijaeqs/v1y2004i1_10.html

Lawrence, C. M., Ray, S., Babyonyshev, M., Galluser, R., Borhani, D. W., & Harrison, S. C. (1999). Crystal structure of the ectodomain of human transferrin receptor. Science, 286(5440), 779–782. https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIENCE.286.5440.779,

Lawrence, R. Z., Weinstein, D. E., Lawrence, R., & Weinstein, D. (1999). Trade and Growth: Import-Led or Export-Led? Evidence from Japan and Korea.

Levine Ross, R. D. (1992). A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/4901181_A_Sensitivity_Analysis_of_Cross-Country_Growth_Regressions

Love, J., & Chandra, R. (2004). Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework. The Manchester School, 72(4), 483–496. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1467-9957.2004.00404.X

Mucuk Mehmet, & Demirsel Mustafa Tahir. (2009). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Ekonomik Performans. The Journal of Selcuk University Social Sciences Institute, 21, 365–373. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/susbed/issue/61797/924404

Naımoglu, M., & Özbek, S. (2022). Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Yeniden Gözden Geçirilmesi: Fourier Yaklaşımı. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 37(1), 174–188. https://doi.org/10.24988/IJE.909072

Ng, S., & Perron, P. (2001). Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica, 69(6), 1519–1554. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00256

Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. 71–102.

Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Source: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94.

Tiffin, R., & Irz, X. (2006). Is agriculture the engine of growth? Agricultural Economics, 35(1), 79–89. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1574-0862.2006.00141.X;PAGE:STRING:ARTICLE/CHAPTER

Tiffin, R., & Irz Xavier. (2006). Is agriculture the engine of growth? Agricultural Economics, 35(1), 79–89. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1574-0862.2006.00141.X

Yildirim, J., Sezgin, S., & Öcal, N. (2005). Military Expenditure And Economic Growth In Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(4), 283–295. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500114751

GSYIH’YI ETKİLEYEN DEĞİŞKENLERİN ZAMAN SERİLERİ ANALİZİ: AMPİRİK ÇALIŞMA